Decision-Making Under Uncertainty for Operational Leaders

Introduction

This course provides structured decision-making tools for leaders operating under uncertainty, time pressure, and risk, ensuring balanced decisions that support safety and performance.

Objectives

·         Apply structured decision-making models

·         Reduce cognitive bias in judgment

·         Strengthen risk-informed decision practices

·         Improve team decision alignment

Target Audience

·         Operations and maintenance leaders

·         Shift supervisors and control room leaders

·         Planning and scheduling professionals

5-Day Scientific Program

Day 1

·         Fundamentals of decision-making theory

·         Types of uncertainty in operations

·         Cognitive bias and human factors

·         Defining decision criteria

Day 2

·         Risk-informed decision-making concepts

·         Barrier and control thinking

·         Evaluating operational trade-offs

·         Decision authority and escalation

Day 3

·         Options analysis and comparison methods

·         Cost, risk, and consequence evaluation

·         Sensitivity and impact analysis

·         Decision documentation

Day 4

·         Team-based decision dynamics

·         Managing conflicting technical opinions

·         Rapid decision alignment techniques

·         After-action reviews

Day 5

·         Operational decision simulations

·         Case studies from energy operations

·         Lessons learned and best practices

·         Personal decision-making toolkit